GOP Has Record Lead Before Elections

A new Gallup poll shows the GOP leading the Democratic Party by 10 points in a “generic ballot” test, which asks whether the voter prefers a Republican or Democratic candidate. That’s the GOP’s largest lead in the 68 years that the generic-ballot question has existed. Should Democrats panic? Well, a Newsweek poll showed voters split evenly 45-45 on the generic ballot. Pollster.com says the average lead according to polls for the GOP is 5.2 percent; still, some experts say a 2-point GOP lead would translate into a pickup of 50 House seats.

Read more at Pollster.com

Americans’ Health-Care Change of Heart

It didn’t take long for Americans to come around on health-care reform: A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows 49 percent of Americans saying health-care reform is a “good thing,” with only 40 percent saying it is bad. This is a marked reversal from polling from before the legislation was passed and signed, which typically showed the public opposed. Forty-eight percent of respondents also say it’s just a “good first step” that needs to be followed up with more action. Additionally, congressional Republicans rate the lowest out of all the major players: Twenty-six percent said their work was excellent or good, while 34 percent say it was poor; for congressional Democrats, those numbers are 32 and 33 percent; for Barack Obama, they’re 46 and 31 percent.

Obama may want to look at this….

Thursday, Jan 14, 2010 18:26 EST –  Salon website

Doomsday for Obama in 2012? Not quite

New poll shows Obama losing to unnamed challenger in 2012, but outlook may not be quite as bleak as it seems

By Emily Holleman

Depending on what side of the aisle you’re on, you may have woken up to some dispiriting – or validating – news this morning: A  National Journal poll in which 50 percent of respondents said they’d vote for “someone else” other than President Obama if the presidential election of 2012 were held today. Just 39 percent of those polled said they would “probably” or “definitely” vote to reelect the president.

The results broke fairly predictably along party lines with 86 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for someone else and 77 percent of Democrats reporting they’d vote to keep Obama in office. Among independents, the story’s a bit more troubling for Obama — just 33 percent in that group said they would vote to reelect him, while 54 percent said they’d opt for the alternative to-be-named.

Now, this clearly isn’t great news for the Obama camp, but the outcome isn’t nearly as damning as it appears at first glance.

The results may have been as dim as they are in large part because the question pitted Obama against an unnamed opponent from an unspecified party. Although pollsters often use this type of generic question, it tends to yield the worst imaginable outcome for incumbents, since respondents are free to picture the anonymous opponent any way they like.

“It’s going to tend to be a worst case scenario, because it allows you to imagine whoever you want,” Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal says. “If you’re an unhappy progressive, you may be imagining a primary challenger, even though you might be voting for a Democrat in a general election. If you’re a Republican, you may be thinking of your ideal candidate. It may be different if the Republican candidate is Sarah Palin or someone else you’re less happy with.”

2010 Elections are going to be interesting….

This article goes into key dates and key races to watch for the 2010 elections.  Will the pollsters be correct or will there be a surprise or two in the final count?

Lilac

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2010/01/12/2010_political_calendar/index.html

Close to a Record Tonight…

Given that we are close to beating a record, thanks to the very great work of one fnord, I have a poll shamelessly devoted to that goal:  Would you bloggers rather 1) see Dick “Darth” Cheney violently sodomized by an angry alien, or 2) all U.S. citizens having healthcare?  One or two?

Love you all…